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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 71

New York Giants 3 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(5:43) 3-R.Wilson right guard to NYG 31 for 2 yards (92-D.Armstrong).

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model