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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New York Giants
4th & 4 at the 51
New York Giants 6 – Washington Commanders 14
What Actually Happened
(12:14) 12-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
+0.32 EP
Model's Pick
-
47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.43 EP
- 53% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 51, worth -2.46 EP
KICK
-1.05 EP
- 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
- 70% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT
+0.28 EP
What Happened
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth +0.28 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
