Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 60

Washington Commanders 14 – New York Giants 3

(9:28) 10-T.Way punts 31 yards to NYG 29, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-69-T.Ott.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.68 EP
64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 60, worth -3.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model