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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 64

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:42) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 12, Center-69-T.Ott. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 23 for 11 yards (35-P.Butler).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.14 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 64, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 22, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model