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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 71

New York Giants 3 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(8:37) 12-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to WAS 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.00 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model