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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2025-09-07 · 16:25 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

HOU
30.9%
LA
69.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LA: Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.155 vs C.J. Stroud (HOU) -0.093 EPA/dropback
  • HOU offense: -0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LA defense: +0.029 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 21
–
LA 26
Projected margin: LA by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

HOU

Braxton Berrios WR Out Hamstring
Christian Kirk WR Out Hamstring
Ed Ingram G Questionable Abdomen

LA

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 9
–
LA 14

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:20 FG HOU (1:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 3 – LA 0
  • Q2 04:52 FG HOU (4:52) 15-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 6 – LA 0
  • Q2 00:57 TD LA (:57) 23-K.Williams left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – LA 6
  • Q2 00:03 FG HOU (:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 9 – LA 7
  • Q3 12:33 TD LA (12:33) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 87-D.Allen for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 9 – LA 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:59) 6-T.Townsend punts 61 yards to LA 24, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-X.Smith to LA 29 for 5 yards (22-J.Smith).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 9 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 47%

    (8:23) 42-E.Evans punts 41 yards to HOU 5, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 77%

    (1:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 12 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 37%

    (13:21) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:22) 6-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to LA 25, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 93%

    (7:02) 7-C.Stroud up the middle to LA 17 for 2 yards (91-K.Turner).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 20 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 86%

    (4:52) 15-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (:57) 23-K.Williams left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 11 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:46) 42-E.Evans punts 46 yards to HOU 14, Center-47-A.Ward. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 24 for 10 yards (51-T.Reeder).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 10 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 37%

    (2:07) 6-T.Townsend punts 37 yards to LA 13, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 64%

    (12:13) 42-E.Evans punts 34 yards to HOU 5, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:26) 6-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to LA 18, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-X.Smith to LA 34 for 16 yards (33-D.Ogunbowale).