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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 50

Houston Texans 9 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 6-T.Townsend punts 37 yards to LA 13, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.28 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.24 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model