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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 33

Houston Texans 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(1:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.10 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model