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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 74

Houston Texans 9 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 6-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to LA 18, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-X.Smith to LA 34 for 16 yards (33-D.Ogunbowale).

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.19 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 74, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP