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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 79

Houston Texans 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 6-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to LA 25, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.26 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 79, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 36, worth -2.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model