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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 50

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(13:21) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.55 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 50, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model