Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 60

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Houston Texans 9

(6:46) 42-E.Evans punts 46 yards to HOU 14, Center-47-A.Ward. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 24 for 10 yards (51-T.Reeder).

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.82 EP
66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 60, worth -3.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model