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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Houston Texans
4th & 1 at the 19
Houston Texans 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0
What Actually Happened
(7:02) 7-C.Stroud up the middle to LA 17 for 2 yards (91-K.Turner).
The Three Options
GO
+2.70 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.62 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 19, worth -1.05 EP
KICK
+1.09 EP
- 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
- 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 29, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT
-0.53 EP
- Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
