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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Los Angeles Rams
4th & 1 at the 1
Los Angeles Rams 0 – Houston Texans 6
What Actually Happened
(:57) 23-K.Williams left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.99 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.87 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 1, worth +0.41 EP
KICK
+1.89 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT
+0.03 EP
- Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
