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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
Friday 2025-09-05 · 20:00 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

KC
57.4%
LAC
42.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.132 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Justin Herbert (LAC): +0.081 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

KC 25
–
LAC 23
Projected margin: KC by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

KC

Jalen Royals WR Out Knee
Omarr Norman-Lott DT Questionable Ankle

LAC

Mekhi Becton G Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 21
–
LAC 27

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:16 TD LAC (9:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 1-Q.Johnston for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-56-G.Karlaftis, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced between downs. KC 0 – LAC 6
  • Q2 13:50 FG LAC (13:50) 11-C.Dicker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. Penalty on KC-2-J.Williams, Defensive Offside, declined. KC 0 – LAC 10
  • Q2 04:53 FG KC (4:53) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 3 – LAC 10
  • Q2 00:49 FG LAC (:49) 11-C.Dicker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. KC 3 – LAC 13
  • Q2 00:03 FG KC (:03) 7-H.Butker 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 6 – LAC 13
  • Q3 08:11 TD KC (8:11) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 12 – LAC 13
  • Q3 00:36 TD LAC (:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 13-K.Allen for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: KC-23-D.Tranquill has returned to the game. KC 12 – LAC 19
  • Q4 12:10 TD KC (12:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 18 – LAC 20
  • Q4 05:09 TD LAC (5:09) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 1-Q.Johnston for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-21-J.Hicks, Face Mask, 8 yards, enforced between downs. KC 18 – LAC 26
  • Q4 02:37 FG KC (2:37) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 21 – LAC 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:35) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to LAC 32, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 9 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 57%

    (6:10) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to LAC 2, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-20-N.Williams.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (4:40) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to KC 34, Center-41-R.Lovato. 81-N.Remigio to KC 42 for 8 yards (43-T.Dye; 53-D.Phillips).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 9 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:34) 14-M.Araiza punts 36 yards to LAC 21, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 16 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 92%

    (13:50) 11-C.Dicker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. Penalty on KC-2-J.Williams, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (12:12) 77-J.Moore reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt right end to KC 49 for 6 yards (0-D.Henley; 32-A.Gilman).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 79%

    (8:45) 77-J.Moore reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 29-K.Hunt pushed ob at LAC 26 for 6 yards (0-D.Henley).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 17 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 95%

    (4:53) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 8 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

    (:49) 11-C.Dicker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 17 at the 40
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 62%

    (:03) 7-H.Butker 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 9 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:08) 16-J.Scott punts 50 yards to KC 21, Center-41-R.Lovato. 81-N.Remigio to KC 20 for -1 yards (36-J.Taylor).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (5:46) 8-O.Hampton left end to LAC 39 for 4 yards (32-N.Bolton). KC-23-D.Tranquill was injured during the play.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 58 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:24) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 5-M.Brown to LAC 9 for 49 yards (2-E.Molden) [52-K.Mack].

  • Q4 KC 4th & 9 at the 9 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 98%

    (2:37) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.