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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 57

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:12) 77-J.Moore reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt right end to KC 49 for 6 yards (0-D.Henley; 32-A.Gilman).

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.23 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model