4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 18

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(:49) 11-C.Dicker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.00 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 18, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 28, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model