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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 58

Kansas City Chiefs 18 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(3:24) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 5-M.Brown to LAC 9 for 49 yards (2-E.Molden) [52-K.Mack].

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.03 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model