4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 42

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:10) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to LAC 2, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-20-N.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.59 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model