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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 9

Kansas City Chiefs 18 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(2:37) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.86 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model