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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 16 at the 21

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(13:50) 11-C.Dicker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. Penalty on KC-2-J.Williams, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.90 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 31, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model