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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 17 at the 17

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:53) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.47 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model