4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 72

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to LAC 32, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.33 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 30, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model