Win Probability
Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- TB offense: +0.165 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- ATL defense: +0.047 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
- QB edge to TB: Michael Penix (ATL) +0.110 vs Baker Mayfield (TB) +0.256 EPA/dropback
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- TB defense: -0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- ATL offense: +0.013 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →
Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 1
TB
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 13:26 TD ATL (13:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 7-B.Robinson for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – ATL 6
- Q2 10:21 FG TB (10:21) 4-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. TB 3 – ATL 7
- Q2 07:00 TD TB (7:00) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 2-E.Egbuka for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 9 – ATL 7
- Q2 00:57 FG ATL (:57) 6-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. TB 10 – ATL 10
- Q3 07:33 TD TB (7:33) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 7-B.Irving for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – ATL 10
- Q3 00:23 FG ATL (:23) 6-Y.Koo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. TB 17 – ATL 13
- Q4 02:23 TD ATL (2:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 17 – ATL 19
- Q4 01:04 TD TB (1:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 2-E.Egbuka for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 23 – ATL 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 TB 4th & 8 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(12:21) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to ATL 18, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-19-K.Johnson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 41Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 60%
(6:34) 13-B.Pinion punts 33 yards to TB 8, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 87Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 53%
(4:59) 9-R.Dixon punts 61 yards to ATL 26, Center-86-E.Deckers. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 38 for 12 yards (41-K.Kieft).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(3:33) 13-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to TB 9, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 64Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 75%
(:22) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 13-M.Evans to TB 42 for 6 yards (24-A.Terrell).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 82%
(10:21) 4-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 47Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 44%
(9:03) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right tackle to TB 47 for no gain (0-Y.Diaby).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 27Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 86%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier up the middle to TB 25 for 2 yards (90-L.Hall).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 91%
(:57) 6-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TB 4th & 15 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(:20) 9-R.Dixon punts 62 yards to ATL 21, Center-86-E.Deckers. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 38 for 17 yards (87-P.Durham; 57-J.Bullock).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TB 4th & 6 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 87%
(11:46) 4-C.McLaughlin 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 ATL 4th & 17 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(9:57) 13-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to TB 14, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-K.Johnson to ATL 32 for 54 yards (13-B.Pinion).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 ATL 4th & 13 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%
(:23) 6-Y.Koo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TB 4th & 12 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 35%
(11:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to ATL 9, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 34-R.McCloud.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 3 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53% p(FG) 99%
(3:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles left end to TB 2 for 1 yard (8-S.Dennis). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles left end to TB 1 for 2 yards (8-S.Dennis).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 4 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%
(2:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown →
