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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 22

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(:57) 6-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.84 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model