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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 87

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(4:59) 9-R.Dixon punts 61 yards to ATL 26, Center-86-E.Deckers. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 38 for 12 yards (41-K.Kieft).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.41 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 87, worth -5.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.61 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 45, worth -2.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP