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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 30

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 4-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.18 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 40, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model