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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 1 at the 27
Atlanta Falcons 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10
What Actually Happened
(2:00) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier up the middle to TB 25 for 2 yards (90-L.Hall).
The Three Options
GO
+2.42 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.16 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.15 EP
KICK
+1.12 EP
- 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
- 14% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT
-0.51 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
