Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 17 at the 73

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

(9:57) 13-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to TB 14, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-K.Johnson to ATL 32 for 54 yards (13-B.Pinion).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.49 EP
72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model