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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 26

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(11:46) 4-C.McLaughlin 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.52 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 36, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model