Value Picks — Week 15

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

BAL @ CIN Disagrees with the line

Model: CIN 63.4% Line: BAL 57.3% 20.7-pt gap vs. the line

IND @ SEA

Model: SEA 68.9% Line: SEA 84.1% 15.2-pt gap vs. the line

BUF @ NE Disagrees with the line

Model: NE 55.8% Line: BUF 57.3% 13.1-pt gap vs. the line

ARI @ HOU

Model: HOU 67.8% Line: HOU 78.2% 10.4-pt gap vs. the line

WAS @ NYG

Model: NYG 67.7% Line: NYG 57.3% 10.4-pt gap vs. the line

ATL @ TB

Model: TB 58.1% Line: TB 67.2% 9.1-pt gap vs. the line

MIN @ DAL

Model: DAL 74.0% Line: DAL 65.8% 8.2-pt gap vs. the line

LAC @ KC

Model: KC 71.2% Line: KC 65.8% 5.4-pt gap vs. the line

MIA @ PIT

Model: PIT 53.7% Line: PIT 58.8% 5.1-pt gap vs. the line

GB @ DEN

Model: GB 57.4% Line: GB 54.4% 3.0-pt gap vs. the line

CLE @ CHI

Model: CHI 74.0% Line: CHI 71.1% 2.9-pt gap vs. the line

CAR @ NO

Model: CAR 54.7% Line: CAR 57.3% 2.6-pt gap vs. the line

TEN @ SF

Model: SF 84.7% Line: SF 82.3% 2.4-pt gap vs. the line

LV @ PHI

Model: PHI 80.6% Line: PHI 82.3% 1.7-pt gap vs. the line

DET @ LA

Model: LA 64.8% Line: LA 65.8% 1.0-pt gap vs. the line

NYJ @ JAX

Model: JAX 85.0% Line: JAX 84.1% 0.9-pt gap vs. the line