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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2025-12-14 · 16:25 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 54.5

Win Probability

DET
33.0%
LA
67.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.199 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • DET offense: +0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • LA defense: -0.126 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to LA: Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.235 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.197 EPA/dropback
  • DET defense: +0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • DET on 3 more days rest than LA

Predicted Final Score

DET 24
–
LA 29
Projected margin: LA by 5 Projected total: 53

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

DET

Kerby Joseph S Out Knee
Brian Branch S Out Achilles
Christian Mahogany G Out Fibula
Thomas Harper S Out Concussion
Taylor Decker T Questionable Shoulder
Kalif Raymond WR Questionable Ankle
Shane Zylstra TE Questionable Knee
Kayode Awosika G Questionable Foot
Sione Vaki RB Questionable Thumb

LA

Davante Adams WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 34
–
LA 41

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:12 TD DET (8:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 14-A.St. Brown for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – LA 0
  • Q1 02:47 TD LA (2:47) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 7 – LA 6
  • Q2 12:07 FG DET (12:07) 39-J.Bates 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 10 – LA 7
  • Q2 08:34 TD LA (8:34) 23-K.Williams left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 10 – LA 13
  • Q2 06:19 TD DET (6:19) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 16 – LA 14
  • Q2 00:36 TD DET (:36) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 1-J.Williams for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-B.Fiske]. DET 23 – LA 14
  • Q2 00:02 FG LA (:02) 92-H.Mevis 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans. DET 24 – LA 17
  • Q3 09:11 FG LA (9:11) 92-H.Mevis 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans. DET 24 – LA 20
  • Q3 02:32 TD LA (2:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 84-C.Parkinson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. DET 24 – LA 26
  • Q3 00:33 TD LA (:33) 22-B.Corum left tackle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 24 – LA 33
  • Q4 07:58 FG DET (7:58) 39-J.Bates 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 27 – LA 34
  • Q4 04:54 TD LA (4:54) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET-21-A.Robertson was injured during the play. DET 27 – LA 40
  • Q4 02:47 TD DET (2:47) (Shotgun) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 5-D.Montgomery. 5-D.Montgomery right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 33 – LA 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 4 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 88%

    (11:16) 39-J.Bates 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 50%

    (5:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to DET 39 for 6 yards (34-A.Anzalone).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 8 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 69%

    (4:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to DET 27 for 10 yards (21-A.Robertson).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (12:07) 39-J.Bates 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (3:21) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to DET 5, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-K.Raymond to DET 20 for 15 yards (22-B.Corum).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (2:00) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown ran ob at DET 43 for 14 yards (1-E.Forbes).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 88%

    (11:14) 22-B.Corum up the middle to DET 24 for 1 yard (36-E.Hallett).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 12 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 87%

    (9:11) 92-H.Mevis 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:48) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to LA 12, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-X.Smith to LA 12 for no gain.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (14:08) 3-J.Fox punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-49-H.Hatten, Touchback.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (12:36) 42-E.Evans punts 47 yards to DET 26, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 85-T.Kennedy to DET 34 for 8 yards (20-R.Rivers).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 69%

    (10:34) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown to LA 26 for 11 yards (14-C.Durant).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 14 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 82%

    (7:58) 39-J.Bates 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 9 at the 52 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 32%

    (:23) 42-E.Evans punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.