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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 25

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 22-B.Corum up the middle to DET 24 for 1 yard (36-E.Hallett).

The Three Options

GO +3.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.56 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 35, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model