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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 14 at the 30

Detroit Lions 24 – Los Angeles Rams 34

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 39-J.Bates 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.63 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model