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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 37

Detroit Lions 24 – Los Angeles Rams 34

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown to LA 26 for 11 yards (14-C.Durant).

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.32 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 37, worth -1.96 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model