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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 45

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(5:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to DET 39 for 6 yards (34-A.Anzalone).

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.17 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 45, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model