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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 25

Detroit Lions 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:16) 39-J.Bates 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.39 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.23 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 35, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP