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New York Jets

HC Aaron Glenn
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Liam Coen
Sunday 2025-12-14 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread 13.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

NYJ
17.9%
JAX
82.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.176 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to JAX: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.030 vs Brady Cook (NYJ) -0.494 EPA/dropback (NYJ starting Brady Cook in place of Tyrod Taylor)
  • JAX defense: -0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: +0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 15
–
JAX 26
Projected margin: JAX by 11 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

NYJ

Tyrod Taylor QB Out Groin
Justin Fields QB Out Knee
Azareye'h Thomas CB Out Shoulder
Francisco Mauigoa LB Out Neck
Mason Taylor TE Out Neck
Cam Jones LB Questionable Hip

JAX

Walker Little T Questionable Concussion
Parker Washington WR Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 20
–
JAX 48

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 27 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:22 TD JAX (10:22) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-B.Thomas for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – JAX 6
  • Q1 06:35 TD JAX (6:35) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers, Defensive Holding, declined. NYJ 0 – JAX 13
  • Q1 01:51 TD NYJ (1:51) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass short left to 15-A.Mitchell for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – JAX 14
  • Q2 14:21 TD JAX (14:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 33-B.Tuten for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – JAX 20
  • Q2 05:07 FG NYJ (5:07) 6-N.Folk 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. NYJ 10 – JAX 21
  • Q2 01:37 FG JAX (1:37) 39-C.Little 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. NYJ 10 – JAX 24
  • Q2 00:27 TD JAX (:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 1-T.Etienne for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 10 – JAX 30
  • Q3 10:52 FG NYJ (10:52) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. NYJ 13 – JAX 31
  • Q3 07:06 TD JAX (7:06) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 1-T.Etienne for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 13 – JAX 37
  • Q3 01:46 FG JAX (1:46) 39-C.Little 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. NYJ 13 – JAX 41
  • Q4 14:15 TD NYJ (14:15) 32-I.Davis right end for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 19 – JAX 41
  • Q4 13:51 TD JAX (13:51) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 1-T.Etienne for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 20 – JAX 47

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (8:49) 20-B.Hall right end to NYJ 38 for -6 yards (44-T.Walker).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 48%

    (10:50) 14-A.McNamara punts 32 yards to JAX 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-32-I.Davis.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 18 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:55) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to JAX 49, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 18-I.Williams for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on NYJ-32-I.Davis, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 49.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 88%

    (5:07) 6-N.Folk 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (1:37) 39-C.Little 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 71%

    (10:52) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (4:45) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Metchie.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (1:46) 39-C.Little 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:43) 14-A.McNamara punts 25 yards to JAX 29, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-42-T.Hennessy.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (5:14) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to NYJ 14, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 23 for 9 yards (50-B.Combs; 25-R.Lane).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 52 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 23%

    (2:03) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass short right to 3-J.Metchie ran ob at JAX 42 for 10 yards.