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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 33

New York Jets 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 31

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.45 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 33, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 43, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model