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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 56

New York Jets 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(8:49) 20-B.Hall right end to NYJ 38 for -6 yards (44-T.Walker).

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.96 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 56, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model