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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 4

Jacksonville Jaguars 38 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 39-C.Little 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.72 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 4, worth +0.42 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP