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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 52

New York Jets 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 48

What Actually Happened

(2:03) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass short right to 3-J.Metchie ran ob at JAX 42 for 10 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.14 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 52, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model