Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 54

New York Jets 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 48

(10:43) 14-A.McNamara punts 25 yards to JAX 29, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-42-T.Hennessy.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.92 EP
68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 54, worth -2.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model