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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 18 at the 98

Jacksonville Jaguars 21 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(9:55) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to JAX 49, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 18-I.Williams for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on NYJ-32-I.Davis, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 49.

The Three Options

GO -3.88 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.10 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 98, worth -6.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

PUNT -2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 53, worth -2.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model