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Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
Sunday 2025-12-14 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 10.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

ARI
33.0%
HOU
67.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU defense: -0.140 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.120 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Jacoby Brissett (ARI): -0.055 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • HOU offense: -0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 20
–
HOU 26
Projected margin: HOU by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

ARI

Bilal Nichols DT Out Knee
Evan Brown G Out Not injury related - personal matter
Jalen Thompson S Out Hamstring
Paris Johnson Jr. T Out Knee
Xavier Weaver WR Out Hamstring
Max Melton CB Out Heel
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR Out Heel
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson S Out Ankle
L.J. Collier DE Questionable Knee
Emari Demercado RB Questionable Ankle
Elijah Higgins TE Questionable Illness
Christian Jones T Questionable Knee
Walter Nolen DT Questionable Knee

HOU

Justin Watson WR Questionable Calf
Nick Chubb RB Questionable Ribs
E.J. Speed LB Questionable Knee
Harrison Bryant TE Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 20
–
HOU 40

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:21 TD HOU (14:21) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – HOU 6
  • Q1 12:03 FG HOU (12:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. ARI 0 – HOU 10
  • Q1 06:15 TD HOU (6:15) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud FUMBLES (Aborted) at ARI 2, recovered by HOU-27-W.Marks at ARI 7. 27-W.Marks for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – HOU 16
  • Q2 13:45 TD ARI (13:45) 78-J.Fryar reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – HOU 17
  • Q2 09:05 FG HOU (9:05) 15-K.Fairbairn 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. ARI 7 – HOU 20
  • Q2 01:46 FG HOU (1:46) 15-K.Fairbairn 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. ARI 7 – HOU 23
  • Q3 04:42 TD HOU (4:42) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 86-D.Schultz for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – HOU 29
  • Q3 00:39 TD ARI (:39) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – HOU 30
  • Q4 13:38 FG HOU (13:38) 15-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. ARI 14 – HOU 33
  • Q4 11:06 TD ARI (11:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-M.Wilson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 20 – HOU 33
  • Q4 03:14 TD HOU (3:14) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 20 – HOU 39

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 11 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (12:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 17 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:30) 39-M.Haack punts 34 yards to ARI 49, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 8 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 69%

    (9:05) 15-K.Fairbairn 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (7:37) 39-M.Haack punts 56 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-J.Noel ran ob at HOU 21 for 13 yards (25-Z.Collins).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 99%

    (1:46) 15-K.Fairbairn 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 57%

    (:40) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at HOU 48 for -6 yards (96-D.Autry).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 75%

    (:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-C.Campbell), Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:20) 66-D.Jacobs reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett up the middle to ARI 37 for 3 yards (97-M.Edwards).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 12 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (13:38) 15-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 44%

    (8:54) 6-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to ARI 4, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-19-X.Hutchinson.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (7:43) 39-M.Haack punts 45 yards to HOU 45, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-36-K.Crawford.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 18 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 39%

    (1:22) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to HOU 45 for 4 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).