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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 47

Houston Texans 33 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 6-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to ARI 4, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-19-X.Hutchinson.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.89 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP