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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 12

Houston Texans 7 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.57 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 12, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model