Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 17 at the 85

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Houston Texans 10

(10:30) 39-M.Haack punts 34 yards to ARI 49, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.48 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.03 EP
72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 85, worth -5.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model