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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2025-12-14 · 16:25 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

GB
52.3%
DEN
47.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.148 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Bo Nix (DEN) +0.117 vs Jordan Love (GB) +0.264 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

GB 23
–
DEN 21
Projected margin: GB by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

GB

Brenton Cox Jr. DE Out Groin
MarShawn Lloyd RB Out Calf
Collin Oliver DE Out Hamstring
Josh Jacobs RB Questionable Knee
Kristian Welch LB Questionable Concussion
Emanuel Wilson RB Questionable Illness
Lukas Van Ness DE Questionable Foot
Savion Williams WR Questionable Foot

DEN

Ben Powers G Out Biceps
Pat Bryant WR Out Hamstring
Mike McGlinchey T Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 26
–
DEN 34

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:06 FG GB (7:06) 17-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 3 – DEN 0
  • Q2 14:14 FG GB (14:14) 17-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 6 – DEN 0
  • Q2 08:26 TD DEN (8:26) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 83-M.Bandy for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – DEN 6
  • Q2 04:35 TD GB (4:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 8-J.Jacobs for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB-50-Z.Tom was injured during the play. GB 12 – DEN 7
  • Q2 02:00 TD DEN (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-L.Humphrey for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – DEN 13
  • Q2 00:05 FG GB (:05) 17-B.McManus 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 16 – DEN 14
  • Q3 14:07 TD GB (14:07) 8-J.Jacobs left tackle for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 22 – DEN 14
  • Q3 09:12 TD DEN (9:12) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 23 – DEN 20
  • Q3 00:06 TD DEN (:06) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 11-T.Franklin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 23 – DEN 27
  • Q4 10:58 FG GB (10:58) 17-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 26 – DEN 27
  • Q4 07:32 TD DEN (7:32) 12-R.Harvey right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 26 – DEN 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 52%

    (9:41) 70-D.Kinnard reported in as eligible. 10-J.Love scrambles left end to DEN 42 for 1 yard (9-T.Hufanga).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 72%

    (7:06) 17-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (5:07) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 48 yards to GB 6, impetus ends at GB 11, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-31-K.Abrams-Draine. DEN-40-J.Strnad was injured during the play. PENALTY on GB-55-K.Enagbare, Unnecessary Roughness, 3 yards, enforced at GB 6.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 6 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (14:14) 17-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 9 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:03) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to GB 19, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 87-R.Doubs.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 20 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:00) 19-D.Whelan punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback. PENALTY on GB-58-I.McDuffie, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 20.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (3:17) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix up the middle to DEN 41 for 2 yards (52-R.Gary).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 11 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 93%

    (10:58) 17-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 57%

    (9:03) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton ran ob at GB 15 for 26 yards. Green Bay challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 47%

    (5:04) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 19-M.Mims (56-E.Cooper).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 9 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 52%

    (2:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at GB 46 for -11 yards (sack split by 0-J.Cooper and 99-Z.Allen).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 37 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 67%

    (1:12) 46-A.Prentice up the middle to GB 38 for -1 yards (56-E.Cooper).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 15 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 31%

    (:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 0-M.Golden [15-N.Bonitto].