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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 70

Denver Broncos 14 – Green Bay Packers 23

What Actually Happened

(13:03) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to GB 19, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 87-R.Doubs.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.32 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model